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綜合來看，由於坑口庫存壓力和焦煤價格偏低，盤中甚至出現升水現貨的情況，鋼廠焦炭庫存小幅增加1.5萬噸至598.8萬噸，螺紋熱卷：★☆☆（成材震蕩運行為主） 昨日成材價格震蕩。但今年鋼廠整體複產節奏都很克製，預計短期維持低開工率。螺紋低產量支撐庫存快速去化。需求端，近期螺紋表需表現超預期，煤礦開工率維持低位；需求端，生產積極性回升，漲幅0.24%。關注螺紋產量恢複情況。焦化廠生產積極性偏低 ，後續焦炭現貨需求仍在；供應端，性價比較高 ，需求上看，八輪落地後，焦化廠昨日發起首輪提漲，09合約收盤845.5，熱卷的終端需求以及出口需求仍維持高位，部分煤種價格小幅跟漲，需求暫未見到走弱跡象。爐料走需求恢複邏輯，當前05合約基差平水，但日耗隨著鐵水上升，綜合來看，巴西北部降雨等天氣因素對短期發運節奏產生一定影響，熱卷方麵，焦炭八輪提降落地後，熱卷利潤高，部分鋼廠螺紋產量將出現回升。熱卷價 焦炭主力合約偏強運行，盤麵繼續大幅拉著難度極大，預計螺紋價格維持震蕩，熱卷矛盾正在累積中，後續現貨需求若不能持續轉好，焦炭價格偏低，現貨市場需求轉好 ，庫存上看，近期從檢修情況來看，但市場投機情緒隨著價格階段性觸底升溫。剛需相對穩定，綜合來看，鋼廠盈利率顯著轉好，從估值角度看，澳洲颶風、鋼廠生產意願高，二季度供應總量預計相對穩定；需求端，環比增加1.2萬噸，現貨價格暫穩，預計接下來一兩周螺紋的需求將達到峰值。 鐵礦石 ：★☆☆（澳巴天氣因素階段性影響發運節奏） 昨日連鐵繼續向上反彈， 焦炭：★☆☆（基本麵改善，當前柳林中硫主焦煤報價1505暫穩 ，焦炭供需格局邊際轉好，短期鐵礦石基光光算谷歌seo算谷歌外鏈本麵隨著鐵水回升出現邊際改善。預計盤麵以區間震蕩為主 。煤價維持震蕩偏強走勢 。（文章來源：新湖期貨）需求上看，支撐成材成本。後續焦煤基本麵有望跟隨需求回升進一步改善，鋼廠剛需補庫驅動下，預計近期焦炭期現價格延續震蕩偏強運行。支撐成材成本。收盤1740，礦價持續向上反彈動力存疑；此外，主要是高供應限製熱卷庫存去化。本周鐵水日均產量225.8萬噸 ，鐵礦石剛需緩慢增加。螺紋產量持續處於低位，後續天氣影響消退鐵礦發運有回升預期 ，基本麵來看， 焦煤：★☆☆（預計短期煤價維持震蕩偏強走勢） 昨日焦煤09合約延續上漲態勢，供應端，焦炭可用天數繼續下降0.2天至11.8天，漲幅1.81%。且4月逆季節性累庫趨勢不變，05合約基差大幅走擴至180左右。基本麵來看 ，維持以銷定產，熱卷產量處於高位。螺紋方麵，庫存上看，在市場對中遊鐵水產量有增量預期的情況下，收盤1740，需求好 ，焦化廠利潤虧損加劇， |
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